Carbon dioxide emissions from Europe's power plants, factories and airlines fell by an estimated 0.47% in 2015 from the previous year, according to a Platts analysis of partial data released by the European Commission Friday.
The indicative year-on-year change in CO2 emissions under the EU Emissions Trading System was based on initial data sent to the EC by EU Member State governments.
Not all regulated installations had reported their data to the EC as of Friday, and the indicative year-on-year change was derived from only those plants whose operators had reported emissions for both 2014 and 2015.
The modest drop in CO2 emissions was broadly in line with analysts' forecasts, which pointed to an increase or decrease of up to 1% in 2015 from the previous year.
The EC's figures are published annually and show underlying demand for EU Allowances, which plant operators must hand over to the EC to cover each metric ton of CO2 emitted on a yearly basis, by a deadline of April 30.
If the year-on-year drop indicated by Friday's partial data is applied to 2014's total CO2 emissions of 1.8684 billion mt, the final figure for 2015 would be 1.8597 billion mt, including the aviation sector, according to Platts analysis.
By far the largest share of CO2 emissions under the EU ETS come from combustion plants at 66% of the total, and this sector's emissions were down by an estimated 9.6 million mt or 0.86% below 2014 levels.
CO2 emissions from Europe's metals producers, making up 7.3% of the total, were down 1.8 million mt in 2015 or 1.45% below the previous year, the figures show.
Two sectors that bucked the downward emissions trend in 2015 were refining and aviation, with a share of 7.4% and 3.2% of the total, respectively.
CO2 emissions from refineries were estimated up 1.96 million mt or 1.6% from 2014 levels, while aviation's CO2 emissions were up 1.85 million mt or 3.6% from the previous year.
Cement emissions, making up 6.8% of the total, were down 762,000 mt or 0.67% from 2014 levels, and CO2 emissions from chemicals plants, making up 4.3% of the total, were down 428,000 mt or 0.59% from the previous year, the figures show.
All the figures are indicative and based on a like-for-like comparison, because some plant operators had yet to report their 2015 data as of Friday.